Nigeria’s High Recurrent Costs, Low Revenue and Escalating Debt Numbers.

In the recently released Q3 2020 debt report by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total public debt was N32.22trn as of 30 September 2020, with local debt making up 62.18% of the total public debt in the period while external debt made up 37.82%.

This is similar to the country’s debt structure in the same period of 2019 when domestic debt made up 68.45% of total public debt and external debt made up 31.55%. 

Whilst the debt to GDP ratio remains within the acceptable threshold, we are increasingly concerned about the nation’s ballooning debt service to revenue ratio.

Recall that the Federal Government of Nigeria following a series of revisions to the 2020 appropriation bill arrived at a fiscal deficit of N4.98trn.

Based on the finance ministry data, an aggregation of debt monetization (N2.86trn) and New borrowings (N3.28trn) was used to finance the deficit.

The 2021 appropriation bill forecasts a budget deficit of N5.60tn which would be financed mainly by borrowings of N4.69tn, privatization proceeds of N205.15bn and project linked bilateral & multilateral loans of N709.69bn.

The country’s financing structure is of concern when one considers that the budget is tilted more towards recurrent expenditure than capital expenditure and raises questions on the sustainability of the current fiscal practices.

The significantly higher recurrent component of the budget continues to drag the country’s economic growth, resulting in poor infrastructural development. Spending more on capital projects can promote industrialization, improve local purchasing power and help the federal government’s diversification drive.

Nigeria continues to face issues of poor revenue generation and lack of will to efficiently manage its expenditure. No significant cuts have been made to its overheads and statutory spending has continued to rise. Nigeria’s growing debt stock with little to show for it in terms of capital expenditure remains a major concern.

 

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